There is almost always a system that is involved with a handicapping bet in the NFL. Some people are going to use computers in order to calculate numbers while others will simply go on gut instincts and observations. No matter what you choose and what system you are going to use, it is necessary to analyze statistics as these are the most important parts of betting on handicap. Some of the stats are going to be more important than others.
The first stat that you have to look at is average yards per attempt. This will help you to rate the skill position players of the team by looking at how many yards are covered by one attempt. When analyzing the quarterback you want to look at the yards gained for each passing attempt and the running back will show yards per carry as a crucial stat.
You should then look at scoring trends in the first half. A good team will always play well as the game start and will try to score as early as possible. If the team is great, it will also continue the trend in the second half but if they build a really good advantage in the first half, they can then use the third and fourth periods to gain time. A team that is under after the first half will need to take chances in order to get closer to the leading team.
Gamblers will analyze interceptions and sacks. This stat will show you how many times the defense will force the interception or the sack when looking at how many passing attempts were made. By analyzing such statistics, you can identify defenses that will know how to force the quarterback to make mistakes more often. If the NPP percentage is high, the defense will basically be consistently overwhelming when faced with the offensive line of the opposition.
The last important statistic to analyze when wanting to bet on handicap is the turnover ratio. This is important due to the fact that a turnover will have a really big impact on the game’s outcome. In most cases the team that will win the turnover battle is going to end up winning the game. In addition, if the team manages to have control and not make many turnovers, it will usually perform well against a spread. A turnover that happens deep in the team’s territory will usually lead to easy points for the opposing team.