Observing gamblers in your local area can be quite an interesting eye opener. When it comes to NFL wagering, the strangest strategies take place. This is primarily due to the enjoyment your average citizen gets from watching an American football game. It’s not so much about the wager, but more about the entertainment.
This works for some people, but professional gamblers want to have the best chance at winning. We know that the key is doing the research and coming up with the best formula possible. Over and unders present a series of challenges, which can make them difficult wagers. In addition, most sports betting sites will have any over/under at -110. So before you even place a bet, you have to spend more in order to win less.
The best way to look at it is that you’re basically paying “juice,” even though your local bookie will probably be at -120 for each over/under bet. None of this will matter if you have the right strategy (or formula) in place.
What to Look for in an NFL Game
Over the past 10 years, the NFL gradually grew into a passing league. Very rarely do you see teams run the ball 30-40 times a game anymore. This is due to various rule changes, offensive playbooks, and several teams with better quarterbacks than running backs. The end result is inflated overs and unders.
So, in order to make this a successful venture, you have to study things about the game of football. You have to start thinking outside the box, because this is going to get a little tricky. It all starts with the offensive line. Yep, the most underrated part of the game plays a major role in an over/under.
Teams with elite offensive lines give the quarterback more time in the pocket. It provides quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers additional time to create plays that wouldn’t normally be present. The offensive line will also open holes for the running backs and keep the defense off-balance. The point; an off-balance defense means more points for the offense (in most cases).
Here are a few other areas to consider:
a. The weather during the game (preferably 60-70 degrees)
b. The total yards given up (on average) by both defenses
c. The total points (on average) both teams score per game
d. The home team
Knowing all of this information will be crucial to the amount of wins you cash-in. Even with all this knowledge, there is one approach that tops them all. For example purposes, let’s say the Philadelphia Eagles are at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The over/under on this game is 44 1/2 points.
If you take all the information you’ve gathered, and the average total based on your research is 41, you don’t want to wager on this game. Now, if the average total is 55, your chances of hitting the over are much greater. If your average is 29, you have a better shot of hitting the under. Good luck!