Whether you call it the line or the spread, one thing is clear: if you want to continue a successful round of NFL betting, you need to pay attention to the way the line moves. Now, line moves and reverse line moves are talked about, debated, disparaged, and otherwise doubted, but money moves whether we like it or not. Calculating how that money moves can be the difference between winning more bets or just barely coming out even.
There are some strong reasons why line movement ends up affecting your point spreads. Injuries can creep in, taking the star player from a favorite and keeping them out for a few games. When you mix a tiny ball with oversized men, you’re bound to have injuries. Football players really have to work hard to get those wins, you know.
It’s not even just the injuries. When you’re playing in the NFL, there are also changes in weather. Weather affects games more than you expect. A sudden drop in temperature adds intensity to the game, because players have to battle the cold while they’re battling each other. This is the same if there’s a sudden heat wave.
The bookmakers also play a role in line movements. If they see that one side is getting all the action and the other side isn’t, they may decide it’s best to move that line.
As you can see, you can’t just log into your favorite sportsbook, notice the odds/line moved and then flip out. You have to think a bit more strategically than that.
Looking at line moves can take up a lot of your day, but it’s important that you watch out for them. Look closely for injuries, weather changes, and overall market sentiment. Has the favorite changed places with the underdog? Think very carefully before you just change your betting. Many punters get tempted to change up everything just because they see a line movement has changed. This is absolutely the wrong attitude to take. If you’re always reacting, you’re never in a solid position to do anything. This is a game of risk, and you’re going to have to take the risk that you’re wrong. The good news is that if you’re right about a pick, you can make quite a bit of cash.